Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
